Could the impending suspension of Staffordshire MP Chris Pincher lead to a by-election in Walsall?

The Tamworth MP has been under investigation for "causing significant damage to the reputation" of parliament and MPs over claims he groped two men at a private club last year.

If it rules against him it would pave the way for a 10-day suspension from parliament - which would trigger a recall petition and likely by-election in Tamworth.

And the departure of Mr Pincher, who has sat as an independent for the past year after losing the Tory whip, could have an impact in the Black Country.

Walsall North MP Eddie Hughes has already been selected as the Tory candidate for Tamworth at the next general election, with his current seat due to be axed under Boundary Commission reforms.

But should he be required to contest the Tamworth by-election, he would need to leave his current seat early, triggering another by-election in Walsall North.

There is however, a key reason why this is unlikely.

Mr Hughes was selected for the reformed version of the Tamworth seat which includes the village of Whittington – which is currently part of the Lichfield constituency.

It means that technically he hasn't been selected for Mr Pincher's seat, and so there would have to be another selection process for the by-election.

And it is doubtful CCHQ would want Mr Hughes to put himself forward.

While a by-election in Tamworth looks unavoidable, the party is well aware that setting one up in Walsall North would be potentially disastrous.

Realistically, the earliest a by-election could be held in Walsall North would be November, meaning the winner would be in office for less than a year before the seat disappears from the electoral map.

Rishi Sunak already has a trio of by-elections on his plate this month, with the former seats of Boris Johnson, Nigel Adams and David Warburton all up on July 20.

With all three seats eminently losable, the Tories would want to avoid the very real prospect of losing Walsall North as well – particularly as it would represent a significant weakening of the Red Wall ahead of the general election.

For this reason, it may be prudent for the Tories to pick someone else for a by-election in Tamworth – although they would have to stand on the proviso that they step aside for Mr Hughes to contest the seat next year.

While the Tories will do everything to avoid a by-election in Walsall North, a Labour Party smelling blood will understandably be desperate for one to happen.

And even if it doesn't, Sir Keir Stamer's party will at least have been gifted an attack line over in Tamworth, with the Conservative candidate sure to be branded a "lame duck" once campaigning starts.

One question that must be asked of CCHQ is that with the likely suspension of Mr Pincher on the radar for some time, why wasn't the Tamworth selection delayed?