Express & Star

Comment: Coming months will determine the speed and shape of change at Aston Villa

Change is coming to Aston Villa. The next few months will merely determine its speed and shape.

Published

In some respects, the club find themselves in a similar position to 12 months ago. A few points worse off, admittedly, yet essentially at the same crossroads, the bright lights of the Premier League shimmering in one direction, the rather more modest glow of another season in the Championship in the other.

The major difference, however, is that while last year the latter turn was clouded in uncertainty and – as it quickly transpired – near financial disaster, this time Villa stand on far firmer ground, no matter their immediate destination.

That, at least, was the message delivered by Christian Purslow while being questioned this week by the the club’s Supporters’ Trust.

Villa’s chief executive is not a man keen on sound bites but at such events they are often unavoidable. There was no disguising the irony his most repeated plea to be judged “on actions, not words” could be classed precisely in that category.

Yet it was another comment, made early in the 40-minute session, which struck by far the biggest chord.

Purslow explained how Villa, under the leadership of majority shareholders Nassef Sawiris and Wes Edens, would no longer be ‘betting the ranch’ on promotion.

Far from being interpreted as an attempt to lower ambitions, such words instead came as reassurance to supporters who have witnessed their club gamble again and again without success, most recently under the ownership of Tony Xia.

If Purslow is to be believed, there is now a genuine desire to overhaul a club which for the past decade has eaten cash by the hundreds of millions.

Of course, promotion will always be the aim. Being in the Premier League, with Premier League money, can make any restructure far slicker and quicker.

Yet the core goals, of making Villa self-sufficient, reducing the age and cost of the playing squad and making better use of the club’s academy, will remain the same, regardless of the division the first XI might be playing in.

Villa, essentially, approach the final months of the season still very working on Plan A, yet with Plan B already drawn up. The club, according to Purslow, has not budgeted for promotion. We are not talking about a case of go up or go bust. Not this time around.

By the same token, it is be pointless to claim missing out on promotion a third time wouldn't bring short-term pain, while making the rebuild considerably tougher and quite possibly longer.

For one thing, it would have to be done without the luxury of parachute payments.

It would also be difficult, for instance, to envision a scenario where Villa remain in the Championship and hang on to Jack Grealish, as they did so last summer in such improbable fashion. Ensuring they remain within the parameters of Financial Fair Play, meanwhile, might also require the sale of another fan favourite or two.

Other outcomes appear inevitable whether promotion is won or not. A number of the club’s biggest earners, Glenn Whelan and Mile Jedinak to name just two, are out of contract in the summer.

Purslow pointedly described the next few months as a “last hurrah” for some senior players and made clear trimming the wage bill is a priority. How much the club must do that by will be determined by the division they are playing in.

Maintaining motivation levels among those members of the squad, who know their future likely lies elsewhere, will represent one of several challenges for Dean Smith in the months ahead.

Villa’s head coach is central to the whole project. The 47-year-old’s ability to plan for both the short and long-term, honed during spells at Walsall and Brentford, did certainly not go unnoticed when Purslow identified him as Steve Bruce’s successor.

That Villa’s current shot at promotion remains their best shot should not and is not being overlooked. True, their squad is not so well-balanced as 12 months ago. It may yet be strong enough to secure a top six spot and from there, who knows?

Win promotion and Villa will get to call many of their own shots. Miss out again and the road only gets harder, the only consolation – not an insignificant one in the context of recent history – being the hierarchy know that must be the case.

Sawiris and Edens have remained largely silent since last summer, though the fact they have chosen to fund the club through regular share issues backs up Purslow's promise of long-term commitment.

Predicting precisely how things will turn out is impossible. Perhaps the only certainty is that, 12 months from now, Villa will look a very different club come what may.